Four Arab countries have severed relations with Qatar. Seven countries have severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. Are differences with Qatar something new?

Bahrain, Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Maldives, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on June 5 diplomatic relations with Qatar, accusing them of financing terrorism. Qatar called such actions “unfounded” and not supported by facts. Rain tells what happened and how the rift in the Persian Gulf will affect oil prices.

What happened

Bahrain was the first to break diplomatic relations, then Saudi Arabia, and after that other countries joined them as allies. They announced that in this way they were trying to “protect their national security from terrorism and extremism” - the governments of these countries suggest that the Qatari elite supplied money and weapons to strengthen Islamic groups in Syria. Qatar was also expelled from the coalition against IS.

The UAE has accused Qatar of spreading al-Qaeda ideology through its media and harboring wanted extremists. Qatari authorities acknowledge support for some Islamist movements, but deny support for terrorism.

Saudi Arabia has closed its sea, air and land borders with Qatar. This is the only country with which Qatar has land borders. Egypt has closed its air and sea borders. Gulf countries gave Qatari citizens two weeks to leave their territory, but the UAE gave them only 48 hours.

According to the Financial Times, the closure of Qatar's only land border with Saudi Arabia could lead to the former facing food shortages. This is critical for the country where the FIFA World Cup will be held in 2022, the publication notes. Iran has begun delivering food to Qatar: as the Minister of Agriculture said, ships with food will arrive in Qatar within 12 hours. The work of Qatar Airways, which flies through the airspace of neighboring countries, is also under threat.

At the same time, the Qatari government maintains that the severance of diplomatic relations will not affect the daily lives of citizens and other residents. The UAE state airline Etihad Airways informed Dozhd that all flights to Doha from Moscow will be canceled from June 6. The Moscow office of Qatar Airways reported that the only restriction currently in force is the cancellation of flights to Saudi Arabia until the morning of June 6, after which flights will be resumed. The airline has no restrictions on flying over the airspace of any countries.

How it all started

According to the BBC, tensions between the countries have been increasing in recent years, and in recent weeks the process has accelerated. The publication identifies two key factors that influenced the decision: Qatar's alleged ties to Islamist groups and Qatar's relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia's regional rival.

Two weeks ago, the same countries blocked Qatari news sites, including the site of one of the world's largest television channels, Al Jazeera. This happened at the same time that Qatari state media published comments by the country's emir, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, criticizing Saudi Arabia. However, Doha later stated that the sites were subject to a hacker attack and the emir did not say this.

The severance of diplomatic relations between seven countries and Qatar came two weeks after US President Donald Trump visited the Saudi capital of Riyadh. How writes The New York Times, during his visit he invited Saudi Arabia to lead a coalition of Sunni Arab countries in the fight against extremism and, together with Israel, to present a united front against Shiite Iran.

Commenting on the rupture, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson called on all parties to hold talks to discuss their differences. "I don't expect this to have any significant impact, if any, on the unified fight against terrorism in the region and around the world," Tillerson said.

A similar diplomatic row unfolded in 2014 when Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain united against Qatar over its support for the Muslim Brotherhood group, which the three countries had listed as a terrorist group. At the same time, Qatar announced a course to strengthen relations with Tehran. Eight months later, diplomatic representatives from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain returned to Qatar through the mediation of Kuwait.

Impact on oil

According to The New York Times, Qatar's stock market fell 5.5% in early trading in response to the diplomatic rift. Bloomberg notes that the price of Brent oil rose 1.6% to $50.74 per barrel on the London ICE exchange. However, the price later fell again by 1.12% to $49.37 per barrel.

This demonstration of political instability helps the market maintain oil prices at a relatively high level, explains Rusenergy partner Mikhail Krutikhin. He does not rule out that the severance of diplomatic relations could have occurred in agreement with Qatar.

According to Krutikhin, tense relations with neighbors in the region, an ambivalent position on Iran and participation in an opaque deal to privatize Rosneft pushed the countries of the region to make Qatar a “scapegoat,” the analyst argues. The breakdown of relationships is most likely temporary, he believes.

Qatar is one of the richest countries in the world and the largest producer of liquefied natural gas. The country's sovereign wealth fund is $335 billion. The country has stakes in Barclays Plc and Credit Suisse Group. It also houses the headquarters of CENTCOM, the part of the US Armed Forces responsible for operations in the Middle East.

MINSK, June 6 – Sputnik. Following Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE, the authorities of the eastern part of Libya, Yemen, as well as the Maldives and Mauritius announced the severance of diplomatic relations with Qatar.

These countries accuse Doha of supporting terrorist organizations and destabilizing the situation in the Middle East.

A number of countries announced the adoption of a series of other measures, including the cessation of sea and air traffic with Qatar and the expulsion of its diplomats and citizens. The Qatari authorities expressed regret over this and called the decisions of foreign partners unfounded.

The UN is closely monitoring the situation with Qatar, with which some Middle Eastern countries broke off diplomatic relations on Monday, said the official representative of the secretary general of the world organization, Stephane Dujarric.

King's ransom

Qatar has paid up to $1 billion for the ransom of members of the royal family kidnapped in Iraq, the Financial Times writes, citing sources close to the situation.

Doha has paid for the release of 26 Qatari royals in southern Iraq and "50 militants captured by jihadists in Syria," militant commanders and government officials in the region say. Qatar has handed over money to the al-Qaeda-linked group fighting in Syria and Iranian security services.

The deal took place in April. A source close to the Qatari government said that "payments have been made."

Qatar Statement

Qatar does not intend to aggravate relations with countries that have announced the severance of all ties with Doha, Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed Abderrahman Al Thani said.

“Qatar from its own country will not take measures aimed at escalating the situation, since it believes that such problems should be resolved between fraternal states at the negotiating table,” the head of the Qatari Foreign Ministry said in an interview with Al Jazeera TV channel.

According to him, Qatar will not aggravate the situation, even despite the fact that tough unilateral measures were taken against this country, which had a negative impact on the citizens of the Gulf countries, who are connected, among other things, by family ties.

Panic in stores and traffic jams at the border

The Egyptian news portal Youm7, citing eyewitness accounts, reported that Qatari residents were rushing to buy food and drinking water on Monday. According to the portal, shelves are immediately empty after news of the closure of borders with Saudi Arabia, through which there was a large flow of food.

The media reported that the UAE and Saudi Arabia have stopped exporting sugar to Qatar. According to the agency, Qatar is heavily dependent on sugar supplies from these countries; in total, just under 100 thousand tons are imported per year. The demand for sugar is especially high during the fasting month of Ramadan.

Iran is ready to supply Qatar with all types of food products amid the cessation of supplies from the Persian Gulf countries due to a diplomatic scandal, said the head of the Iranian Association for the Import of Agricultural Products, Reza Noorani.

As Al-Jazeera TV channel reported, heavy trucks are already accumulating in the area of the Saudi-Qatar border and cannot enter Qatari territory.

Interrupted flight

Qatar's national airline Qatar Airways is suspending all flights to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt on Tuesday 6 June until further notice, according to a statement on the airline's website.

“All customers booked on affected flights will be provided with alternative options, including a full refund on any unused ticket and free re-booking to a nearby Qatar Airways network destination,” the statement said.

Market reaction

The diplomatic row in the Persian Gulf has also affected the global economy: the dollar is declining on Tuesday morning amid general concerns in markets due to geopolitical tensions in the world.

The oil market also reacted to the severance of diplomatic relations between a number of Arab countries and Qatar. Prices initially jumped on fears of supply disruptions, but then began to decline as experts pointed to negligible risks of such a scenario. In addition, a number of economists pointed to the danger that due to political differences between OPEC members, the agreement on limiting production could be disrupted.

Russia's position

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had a telephone conversation with his Qatari counterpart Mohammed bin Abdel Rahman bin Jassem al Thani, the Russian Foreign Ministry reports.

“The main attention was paid to the sharp deterioration of relations between Qatar and a number of other Arab states,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement released on Monday.

“Serious concern was expressed about the emergence of a new source of tension within the Arab world. Sergei Lavrov spoke in favor of overcoming the emerging contradictions at the negotiating table, through mutually respectful dialogue in the face of unprecedented challenges, primarily the threat of terrorism,” notes the Russian Foreign Ministry.

Saudi Arabia and three of its Arab allies (Bahrain, UAE, Yemen and Egypt) broke off diplomatic relations with Qatar yesterday, May 5.

They were angry at Qatar's tolerant attitude towards Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. This happened a week after Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia and publicly joined its fight against Iran, writes “Belarusian Partisan” with reference to Bloomberg.

1. What caused the diplomatic conflict?

Mainly it's about Iran. The spark for the outburst was a report from a Qatari state news agency that included comments from Qatar's ruler, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, criticizing growing anti-Iran sentiment. Qatari officials quickly deleted the message, attributing it to hackers, and called for calm.

However, the situation escalated after Sheikh Tamim called Iranian President Rouhani over the weekend despite criticism from Saudi Arabia.

2. Is it about the conflict between Sunnis and Shiites?

Partly. Shiite Iran is Saudi Arabia's main regional rival. The two largest oil exporters are on opposite sides of the conflict in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Taking diplomatic action, the Saudis accused Qatar of supporting "Iran-backed terrorist groups" operating in the eastern part of the kingdom, as well as in Bahrain.

3. Why did the conflict happen now?

Tensions have increased significantly since Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia. Days after Trump and Saudi Arabia's King Salman called Iran the world's top sponsor of terrorism, Saudi Arabia and the UAE accused Qatar of trying to undermine efforts to isolate Iran. The Qatari sheikh was accused of “stabbing his neighbors in the back with an Iranian dagger.”

4. What do analysts say?

Encouraged by strengthening ties with the US under Trump, Saudi Arabia and the US are seeking to crush any opposition that could weaken the united front against Iranian influence in the Middle East. Both countries are also pressuring Qatar to end its support for Islamist movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.

5. What is Iran saying?

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate Muslim cleric who was re-elected to a second four-year term last month, says his country is ready for talks to resolve the crisis. At the same time, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, who wields more power than Rouhani, said the Saudi regime faces certain consequences for its policies in Yemen. In 2015, Saudi Arabia assembled a coalition of Sunni-led countries to fight Yemen's Shiite rebels loyal to Iran after they overthrew the Gulf-backed government.

6. Where else have the interests of Saudi Arabia and Iran collided?

Iran and Saudi Arabia are fighting each other in hybrid wars across the region from Syria to Yemen. In late 2016, tensions between the countries rose over Saudi Arabia's suspicions that cyberattacks on its government agencies originated in Iran. Earlier in 2016, Iranian protesters set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran after Saudi Arabia executed a prominent Shiite cleric and Saudi Arabia responded by severing diplomatic relations with Iran.

7. Are differences with Qatar something new?

In 2014, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from Qatar. The disagreement was sparked by the situation in Egypt, where Qatar supported the Muslim Brotherhood government while Saudi Arabia and the UAE financed its overthrow by the army.

Qatar is also home to the exiled Hamas leadership and a number of Taliban leaders. Analysts say Saudi Arabia and its allies want to show Qatar that it is allowing itself too much.

8. What does Qatar allow itself?

During the Arab Spring, Qatar, unlike other Middle Eastern states, widely supported groups advocating change. At least as long as the unrest remained outside the Persian Gulf. Although, faced with diplomatic threats from its neighbors in the Persian Gulf in 2014, Qatar backed down.

Qatar sought to become a mediator in the region. Its leaders have ties to a wide range of conflicting parties. However, by taking a stand during the Arab Spring, Qatar weakened its position as a neutral country.

9. What else is Qatar known for?

They accused Doha of providing support to terrorist groups and interfering in the internal affairs of states in the region. Yemen later joined the demarche.

"Qatar, in blatant violation of all agreements, pacts and principles of international law, has spread chaos in Bahrain. It does not take into account the values, rights, morals, principles of good neighborliness and relations in the Persian Gulf and denies all obligations," the statement posted on the Foreign Ministry website said. Bahrain. Qatari citizens have 14 days to leave Bahrain, while diplomats have 48 hours. In addition, it is reported that Bahrain has closed its airspace to Qatari aircraft.

Saudi Arabian authorities also announced the cessation of land, air and sea communications with Qatar. Riyadh explained this decision with security reasons.

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry clarified that “the decision to sever diplomatic relations was made in connection with Qatar’s dissemination of the ideology of the Al-Qaeda * and Islamic State ** groups, support for terrorist attacks in the Sinai, Qatar’s continued interference in the internal affairs of Egypt and the countries of the region, which jeopardizes the national security of Arab countries and sows division in Arab society."

The department also announced the failure of attempts to dissuade Doha from supporting terrorist groups, primarily the Islamist association Muslim Brotherhood, banned in Egypt,*** and the refusal to expel its leaders.

The decision to sever diplomatic relations was also supported by the UAE.

In addition, the Saudi Arabia-led coalition announced the end of Qatar's participation in a joint military operation against the Houthis, who have established control over a large part of Yemen's territory. Al Arabiya TV channel reported this.

Let us remind you: this is not the first time that Qatar, which in the Arab world is elegantly called the “barking mouse,” has found itself in the role of an outcast. In March 2014, Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia almost simultaneously recalled their ambassadors from Qatar, accusing the leadership of this country of political and financial support for the Muslim Brotherhood. But, as practice has shown, this did not lead to serious isolation of Doha.

What is behind the current demarche of the Arab “five”, how will this affect the situation in the Middle East?

— The attack against Qatar is a manifestation of the split within the Arab-Islamic coalition, which arose after the visit to Riyadh US President Donald Trump, says Stanislav Tarasov, director of the Middle East-Caucasus Research Center of the International Institute of New States. — Let me remind you that the visit took place on May 21, and Trump, on the very first day of his stay in Saudi Arabia, concluded the largest arms deal in the history of the United States. The parties agreed on a comprehensive strategic partnership and signed a number of agreements totaling $280 billion.

In essence, Riyadh bought off the Americans with an unprecedented contract in order to free its hands in actions against Tehran. In response, Iran appears to have made political and diplomatic efforts to break up the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Shiites in Yemen.

As we see, Iran succeeded in driving a wedge into the ranks of the coalition. At the end of May, excerpts from a speech that was attributed to Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani at the officer's graduation ceremony in Doha. Excerpts from it were instantly distributed by certain Arab and Western media.

This address, allegedly delivered by the Emir of Qatar, indicated, in particular, that “it would be unwise to have tense relations with Iran, which is a strong power and a guarantor of stability in the region.” In addition, the head of Qatar allegedly said that the Islamist movement Hamas is the “legitimate representative of the Palestinian people” and Qatar “contributes to achieving a just peace between Hamas and Israel by maintaining constant contacts with both sides.”

It is now believed that Tehran could well have been behind this information leak directed against Saudi Arabia.

"SP": - Do you think this version is plausible?

- Not really. It can now be used as an information cover. And the real reasons for the break with Qatar are most likely related to the aggravation in Yemen. I do not rule out that Iran, which the coalition led by Saudi Arabia has designated as an enemy, has made efforts to complicate life for the United States and create a new front for the Americans in Yemen.

This version, I believe, is supported by the fact that the United States is postponing the assault on Raqqa together with the Syrian Kurds. In my opinion, Washington fears complications from Tehran and in the Syrian direction.

There is another important point: May 30 Russian President Vladimir Putin held talks in the Kremlin with Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman. According to a statement from the Office of the Royal Court of Saudi Arabia, bin Salman came on an official visit to Moscow "in response to the invitation of President Putin and on the instructions of King of Saudi Arabia Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud".

Then the Arab media wrote that the meeting took place as part of the upcoming visit to the region by Vladimir Putin, who was supposedly going to visit both Qatar and Saudi Arabia. Now, after the demarche against Doha, the question arises: will the Russian leader’s visit to the Middle East take place at all, and if so, to which country?

"SP": - Like a split in the Arab-Islamic will the coalition affect the situation in the Middle East?

“Now the situation in the region is becoming particularly tense, which may affect the further course of events, and above all in the Syrian direction. Iran has already stated that it accepts only a format for the Syrian settlement that involves the participation of Damascus in the process. It is clear that the United States is categorically not happy with this scenario.

It can be said that Trump in Riyadh challenged Tehran by supplying the coalition with an unprecedented amount of weapons, and now Iran has picked up the thrown gauntlet.

"SP": - What does the current aggravation mean for Russia?

— We are participating in the Syrian settlement in a coalition with Iran and Turkey. And for us, the danger is that the crisis could spread to groups in Syria controlled by Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Yes, in such a situation, Moscow receives favorable opportunities for maneuvering - it is no coincidence that the Arab media are hinting that Putin could mediate in a settlement between Qatar and Saudi Arabia. But overall, this does not make the situation any less tense.

* Al-Qaeda was recognized as a terrorist organization by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation on February 14, 2003, and its activities in Russia are prohibited.

** The Islamic State movement (ISIS) was recognized as a terrorist organization by a decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation on December 29, 2014, and its activities in Russia are prohibited.

*** "Muslim Brotherhood" ("Al-Ikhwan al Muslimun") is a terrorist organization. By the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003, its activities are prohibited on the territory of Russia.

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Why did the Arab states break off relations with Qatar, does it support radical Islamists, how does a small country fan the flames of revolution among its neighbors in self-defense, what happens to its economy during the blockade, and what does Russia have to do with it? Grigory Lukyanov, a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science at the National Research University, told the site. HSE".

Gregory, today’s events in Qatar, with which its neighbors severed diplomatic relations in a very harsh manner, came as a surprise to many. What's happening and why? But first, tell us a little about Qatar itself. Where did he come from? What makes it unusual?

Qatar is a young state. It is extremely small compared to its neighbors both in size and population (less than two million people). Qatar only gained independence from Britain in the 1970s. The country reacts quite quickly to changes in the region and is consistently modernizing its political system. Unlike Saudi Arabia, it is not an absolute monarchy. Nevertheless, the emir, his family and court play a key role in the political system.

Qatar is a very rich state. High incomes are achieved through the export of natural resources, primarily natural gas. Third place in the world in terms of proven reserves, consistently among the top ten gas exporting countries. The country also has a large fleet of tanker ships, which allows it to feel very comfortable and trade gas with a variety of countries. This produces a high GDP per capita, which made Qatar immune to the challenges of the Arab Spring.

Gulf countries

Wikimedia Commons

Qatar felt perhaps most calm and protected and therefore actively supported revolutionary changes in other countries, providing a platform for the deployment of opposition groups from Libya, Syria, Egypt, and Palestine. We are beginning to learn about Qatar largely thanks to the Al-Jazeera channel created by the emir in 1996, the mouthpiece of Qatari foreign policy.

So how true are the accusations put forward (and not just now) that Qatar supports radical Islamists, including from the Islamic State (an organization banned in the Russian Federation)?

Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other states accuse Qatar of supporting three forces: the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. In fact, at the state level, Qatar only helps the Muslim Brotherhood. At first they were accepted as political refugees. But then they turned into an instrument of influence: the same Al-Jazeera was used for propaganda in the countries from which they migrated.

This tool turned out to be very powerful and very important: Qatar is a small country, but very rich. It has real reasons to desire non-interference in its internal affairs both from the superpowers and from its “big” neighbors. Qatar has a little brother complex who doesn't want his big brother to come into his room and steal his toys. To this end, Qatar has been trying to increase its role in the region over the past ten years - with the help of Al-Jazeera, the Muslim Brotherhood and an active foreign policy game.

Grigory Lukyanov

In 2009-2010, Qatar tried to present itself as an independent mediator in resolving regional conflicts in Sudan, Somalia, and so on. During the Arab Spring, he actively supported the revolutionary movement and achieved the maximum with minimal effort: the United States moved the Air and Space Operations Control Center to Qatar (one of four such foreign centers). In addition to the US air base, which was already located there, an important intelligence, communications, and control center was added. America has become the de facto guarantor of Qatar's military security. Now no external military forces can enter the country!

So, here are the four pillars: the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Jazeera, natural gas, which provides all this with huge amounts of money, including per capita, which is why the people are not worried and are faithful to their power. Finally, the American military presence. Based on these pillars, Qatar has pursued an extremely active, bold, and, one might say, provocative foreign policy over the past six years. He intervened in the Libyan and Syrian crises, pointedly emphasizing his independence from Saudi Arabia, his “big brother.”

- So, support for ISIS and Al-Qaeda is still rumors, innuendo?

You understand, none of the modern states of the Arabian Peninsula will support a structure whose goal is to capture Mecca and Medina and destroy these states.

But this does not negate another circumstance: in all these countries there are individuals, individuals, sometimes even very wealthy people who occupy a high position in society, who share the ideas of the “Islamic State.” And for them it is worthy of all support.

Grigory Lukyanov

Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science, HSE

But don’t the leaders of these states, who have a lot of power, have the ability to stop this funding?

There are Islamic banking institutions that are not always controlled by the state. These flows, whose organization is based mainly on trust, are often beyond the control of the state. Sometimes, even knowing about some flows, the authorities cannot prevent the transfer of funds in any way: this will affect the interests of entire groups of elites. They will feel that their finances are no longer secure. And then the state will face serious internal opposition.

In fact, many political leaders are more likely to use the Islamic State factor as a justification for certain popular (or not so popular) decisions. But I would be careful not to talk about direct contacts.

Fine. What is happening now? Qatar has built a powerful base for itself, and suddenly a rupture in diplomatic relations and the closure of borders with all its neighbors! Or is it not quite “suddenly”? Or is this not entirely dangerous for him?

Now a lot has changed. Firstly, a change of political leader in the United States. Trump is no longer Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. Clinton and Obama were ready for an active role for Qatar; they saw it as a restraining force in relation to Saudi Arabia - strong, large, powerful.

Trump relied on traditional ties. The Saudis, in fact, met him halfway. Of course, they restored ties, increased military orders, and increased financial obligations. And Trump's first visit to the Middle East, which was to Saudi Arabia, was a symbolic gesture. I admit that at this meeting certain framework agreements could have been agreed upon on how regional policy would be structured in the medium term.

And Saudi Arabia, most likely, received a certain carte blanche to solve a number of problems. And Qatar is an important part of these problems. There are a number of crises unfolding today: Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Qatar plays a role in each of these crises. In Yemen it is minimal, but in Syria and Libya there are entire political opposition groups that at one time received generous funding from Qatar.

- What about Saudi Arabia? As for Syria, as for Libya... It doesn’t even border them!

Today, Saudi Arabia, or more precisely, its closest neighbors (UAE and Egypt) really need a solution the current conflict situation in Syria and Libya. In particular, a political settlement is badly needed in Libya. This is essential for Egypt, otherwise Egypt will have to fight a war on two fronts: in Sinai against the Islamic State and on the border with Libya.

A political settlement was outlined in Abu Dhabi on May 2 this year, but a week later it was disrupted by an attack by irregular armed forces, which had previously received support from Qatar and Turkey, on the positions of the Libyan National Army. And as a result, peace negotiations between the east and west of Libya broke down, and today again a political settlement is postponed. The UAE and Egypt, which spent enormous amounts of energy organizing this peace process, found themselves hostage to groups supported by Qatar. Now they, of course, blame Qatar for this, although, of course, Qatar here is also more likely a victim of its clients, whom it does not control. He can finance them, give them support, but he does not control them. They are absolutely independent in this regard.

And, on the other hand, Yemen. In Yemen, the interests of the UAE and Saudi Arabia diverge. The Saudis need to improve relations with the Emirates, and here, accordingly, an exchange operates. Bash to bash: in Yemen the UAE will make concessions, and in Libya the Saudis will make concessions. In this way, some kind of balance will be built and a political settlement will be achieved where necessary. The United States needs this for one purpose only: Trump promised a quick victory over ISIS. And now, without resolving these conflicts on the ground, victory over ISIS cannot be achieved. Neither in the case of Syria with the attack on Raqqa, nor in the case of the capture of Mosul in Iraq, nor, accordingly, with the victory over “IS” in the Sinai, nor with the victory over “IS” in Libya.

Everywhere it is necessary to create a more or less reliable coalition, and Qatar acts as a troublemaker. He needs to be given an answer, he needs to be reasoned with, and since the United States itself does not want to participate in this under Trump, they leave it to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE.

Grigory Lukyanov

Senior Lecturer, Department of Political Science, HSE

Donald Trump met with the President of Egypt in Washington in mid-spring; He met with the King of Saudi Arabia during his visit, and he also spoke with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi in April. As a result, apparently, this method of solving the problem appeared.

This is a serious blow for Qatar today. The closure of the land border with Saudi Arabia and the withdrawal of all diplomats are truly a blow to sore spots. No one can send in troops, but diplomatic isolation is bad for business. Already now the Qatari stock exchange is beginning to collapse, stock markets are beginning to falter, shares of Qatari banks and Qatari companies are beginning to be dumped. As a result, this is a blow to what is most precious to them, to what lies in their foundation - the very income that ensures their well-being.

Hence the second problem: there is no land border with anyone except Saudi Arabia. When the Saudis close the border, any goods will stop flowing through the land, including food and water, which is also imported into the country in some volume. Qatar has other partners with whom it trades, such as Kuwait. Neither Kuwait nor Oman have yet severed diplomatic relations. There is still an opportunity for Qatar to retreat and surrender. Through them you can contact the rest of the Arab states.

On the other hand, there is another partner who is always talked about. This is Iran. Qatar and Iran have economic ties, maritime trade, and they also share the same gas field. This position, of course, pushes Qatar towards Iran. This could further worsen relations with Saudi Arabia (which is in sharp conflict with Iran). But for now, Qatar has the opportunity to retreat and surrender.

- Tell me, is the 2022 FIFA World Cup... Is it under threat?

I think that by then the conflict will be resolved in one direction or another, and transport links with Qatar will be open.

- And the last question. Russia. Does she have any place in this conflict? Could it be?

Today there is a fairly active exchange of views between our and the Qatari foreign ministers. In the current conditions, we must remember that the history of our relations has many contradictory moments. In 2004, one of the leaders of the Chechen separatists was eliminated in Qatar. (Zelimkhan Yandarbiev, - website note), which was perceived as a violation of the country's sovereignty. On the other hand, not long ago Qatar played an important role in the privatization of Rosneft. We have learned to separate economic interests from political ones.

That is, we can assume that our relations will not worsen. Yes, we are competitors in the gas market. But in the long term, both Russia and Qatar are interested in maintaining high prices for gas and oil. This makes us, if not partners, then at least we are in the same boat; we need the world's production centers to depend on our gas supplies.

In general, recent years have shown that Russia must have a certain level of relations with Qatar in order to be able to influence the situation in the Middle East. Where Qatar has entered, it is necessary to talk with it directly in order to find consensus on issues that concern us. In Syria, for example, we have to communicate with Qatar, despite the fact that we support forces hostile to each other.

Russia, I think, will now take a balanced position. We don't have much to lose in relations with Qatar. But there are certain prospects, opportunities to win. However, it is too early to predict this.